Adam Milstein: Awaiting the Imminent Demise of the Iranian Regime

As the entire Middle East and the world at large wait on tenterhooks for a possible Iranian attack against Israel, one thing is clear: the Iranian people and the Iranian regime are not aligned on values or goals. This has been the case for years – decades, even, since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, when the secular monarchy of the Shah was overthrown and replaced with an Islamic republic. The thriving Iranian populace was quickly subjected to unforgiving theocratic rule and oppressive Sharia law.

Since the devastating October 7, 2023 attack by Iran’s proxy Hamas on Israeli civilians, Iranians have shown their disgust for their regime through support for Israel. Several Iranians, most notably women, have expressed support on social media for Israel’s war against the same jihadi forces that regularly oppress them. Iranian activists like Elica Le Bon have been outspoken on this issue, trying to raise awareness of the tyrannical forces at work within the Iranian regime and how Israel is an ally in their fight against it.

Since the targeted assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, 2024, Iran has threatened a retaliatory attack against Israel, which hasn’t officially claimed responsibility. The fact that the regime did not launch an attack immediately is telling. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei knows a full-scale war with Israel would devastate Iran just as much if not more than it would Israel. In fact, it might be the very thing that finally topples his extremist government. But because there is very little transparency in Khamenei’s regime, even to those within it, we may find it collapsing very suddenly.

This is the view of Israeli-born venture philanthropist and co-founder of the Israeli-American Council Adam Milstein, who co-authored a piece with the vice president at The Heritage Foundation James Jay Carafano on the regime’s imminent demise. Much of Milstein’s philanthropic work has focused on Israeli security and U.S. interests in the Middle East. He and his wife Gila co-founded the Adam and Gila Milstein Family Foundation in 2000, which has dedicated itself to supporting a network of nonprofits that work to strengthen American values, combat hatred and bigotry in all forms, and support the U.S.-Israel alliance. Some of its partners include the Middle East Forum, Scholars for Peace in the Middle East, and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Milstein and Carafano zero in on the protests that rocked Iran in the fall of 2022 and what they say about the disconnect between the Iranian people and its government. The protests were sparked by the death of 22-year-old Iranian woman Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by the morality police for violating the rule requiring women to cover their heads. The police savagely beat her and she died three days later on September 16, 2022. People “of all ages and all sections of society, and from all regions” took to the streets, calling for an end to the regime’s rule. The protests spread to 177 cities, “making it the largest and most sustained stretch of civil unrest to grip Iran since 2009.” Milstein and Carafano were stunned by the persistence of the protestors who, despite brutal repression from government forces and a “full-scale military response,” continued to make their voice heard.

To them, this is clear evidence that the Iranian Revolution has utterly failed. The Iranians are “captured people, incarcerated within their borders by their own leaders,” and these protests showed that the people won’t stand for it much longer. The regime that rules over them is “corrupt, bankrupt, and illegitimate” and refuses to reform itself. It hides its dealings and restricts the flow of information. This is something all authoritarian governments do to survive, according to preeminent Israeli human rights activist Natan Sharansky. It’s only a matter of time until the Iranian government collapses, and when it does, those inside the regime might not even see it coming.

In the meantime, Milstein and Carafano advise that the U.S. should approach Iran strategically. Nothing should be done to “prop up a collapsing dictatorship that also sponsors terrorism worldwide.” They’re staunchly opposed to the Iran nuclear deal, which they believe has “zero prospects of preventing Tehran from getting a nuclear weapon” but which “promises to net the regime more than $1 trillion with which to continue its reign of terror.” They also don’t recommend embracing a regime change as was done in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya, all of which were disastrous for the U.S. 

So what should the U.S. do? First, it needs to show full-throated support for the Iranian people who continue to protest their government. This means “helping to provide access to the internet, popular social media channels, and uncensored news.” It should double down on isolation and sanctions, a surefire way to punish the regime for its myriad human rights abuses. Most important of all, the U.S. needs to build a more resilient Middle East, “one prepared to keep the region from falling into chaos in the aftermath of the Iranian regime’s collapse.” The best way to do this is through the Abraham Accords, which is more than just a normalization mechanism. Milstein and Carafano see it as a vital “tool for economic, political and diplomatic cooperation and integration” across the Middle East that should be built upon whenever possible.

Amidst Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas and escalations with Hezbollah and Iran probable, the U.S. should also continue to “bolster Israeli deterrence and encourage stronger Israeli-Arab alliances in order to ensure its security interests in the region.” The fear of full-scale war has kept Iran at bay so far, but it’s the women of Iran who would suffer most should war break out. In the wake of Iran’s limited retaliatory strike on Israel in April, the morality police intensified its crackdown on women for not wearing hijabs, according to ABC News. “The fear of an imminent war has been added to a long list of worries and hardships [Iranian women] have been grappling with for years.”

The U.S. must ensure that when the Iranian regime finally does fall, it doesn’t take its most vulnerable citizens with it. Adam Milstein and Carafano believe “it will take a stronger, more secure Middle East to stem the flood of discord and uncertainty that will follow” the regime’s collapse. In the end, it’s the U.S.’s responsibility to lay the necessary groundwork to ensure a power vacuum doesn’t exacerbate an already precarious situation and that the greater Middle East can thrive in the wake of such needed change.

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