Adam Milstein on Dealing With Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities

With Israel’s successful assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese-based terror group Hezbollah, on September 27, 2024, the Middle East conflict has reached a new stage. Just 10 days earlier, thousands of handheld pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah, rigged, and sold to the terror group by Mossad itself, exploded. In just a few weeks’ time, Israel has managed to restore much of its regional deterrence that it lost on October 7. Sources indicate that following Nasrallah’s death, Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei is now hiding in a bunker out of fear of Israel’s capabilities.

This is all in stark contrast to the intelligence and operational failures of October 7 against what was believed to be a docile Hamas. Nearly one year after that terror group’s brutal assault on Israeli civilians, a reckoning with its puppet master Iran seems closer than ever, and Israel has proven it’s ready. But there’s an elephant in the room, one that mars every tactical and strategic conversation about Israel’s chances in a regional war: Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran has continuously violated the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), usually referred to as the “Iran deal,” set down in 2015. As of April 2024, its stockpile of uranium is 27 times higher than the deal allows and it has increased its enrichment activities to 60%, worlds beyond the stipulated 3.67%. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), despite not being allowed to monitor Iran’s nuclear activities, discovered in 2023 that it had enriched uranium to 83.7% – not far from the 90% needed to reach weapons-grade level. Iran may have also “begun to restart the activities of the ‘weapons group’ – the group responsible for turning the fissile nuclear material into an actual bomb, and then assembling it on a missile,” according to a recent article in Israel Hayom.

The merit of the JCPOA has been debated since before its inception in 2015, but one voice has been particularly outspoken on its fatal flaws. Adam Milstein is an American of Israeli descent and a venture philanthropist who has dedicated the past few decades of his life to advocacy for Jews and Israel in the nonprofit world. He co-founded the Adam and Gila Milstein Family Foundation with his wife in 2000 with a mission to support a network of nonprofits that strengthen American values, support the U.S.-Israel alliance, and combat hatred and bigotry in all forms.

Through his advocacy, Milstein works directly with organizations like the Middle East Forum and the Washington Institute that promote American values in the Middle East and work toward securing a lasting peace. Thanks to this experience, he’s well-versed in the ways Iran defies Western efforts to contain it. In an article in The Washington Timesat the start of 2021, just before Joe Biden took office, Milstein insisted that reentering the deal after Trump withdrew would “only be interpreted as a sign of American weakness and humiliation.”

Despite Biden’s efforts to revive it, Iran made new demands the U.S. and other Western governments could not meet. The provisions of the Iran deal will technically remain in effect until October 2025, but for all intents and purposes, the deal itself is dead. To Milstein, this is good news. He points out that “the Arab nations were not consulted on the Iran deal” and were “never reassured the deal could forestall an Iranian nuclear breakout.” 

He argues that Biden should “consult with America’s Mideast allies on how to make a stronger Iran deal that addresses all the region’s legitimate concerns.” This means not only addressing uranium enrichment and nuclear weapon development, but also preventing Iran’s “continued development of ballistic missiles, its support for terrorism, its involvement in regional instability, its attacks on other regional countries, and domestic violations of human rights.”

With Biden soon leaving office, it’s unclear what the next president, whether Harris or Trump, will do to rein in Iran. The first Trump administration enacted heavy sanctions that “crippled the Iranian economy, decreased its oil production, and caused a significant devaluation of the rial,” says Milstein. In contrast, Biden “refus[ed] to enforce sanctions already on the books” against Iran, according to Andrea Stricker at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also a benefactor of the Milstein Family Foundation’s support. “Each year since Biden took office, Iran has steadily increased oil exports — its most lucrative revenue source — following a historic collapse of sales during the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.”

In our post-October 7 world, U.S. strategy toward Iran must change. The successful regional response to Iran’s launching of 300 missiles at Israel in April shows that a U.S.-led coalition of moderate Sunni nations is possible. In an article for the Heritage Foundation, Milstein argues that “Washington should be a stronger partner for developing a more resilient Middle East, one prepared to keep the region from falling into chaos” once the Iranian regime eventually collapses. Our next president should lean into the Abraham Accords, a “tool for economic, political, and diplomatic cooperation and integration” in the region.

Building this kind of coalition, helping move the process of normalization between the Arab nations and Israel along, and keeping heavy sanctions in place on Iran are what Milstein sees as our most valuable tools in fighting the enemy in Tehran. “With a united Middle East, the pressure of sanctions, and a unified front with the Europeans, the U.S. will be in the strongest position to secure the strongest deal for our national security.”

The military landscape can change quickly in the Middle East. Israel may have the upper hand now, but Iran and its nuclear capabilities, which grow by the day, are looming on Israel and are at the U.S.’s doorstep. The only way to effectively combat Iran’s axis of evil is to take Milstein’s advice, play hardball with Iran, restore Israeli deterrence against it and its proxies, and build a regional coalition that is strong enough to stand against the regime and fill the vacuum it leaves when it’s finally defeated.

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